'09 Prediction Recap

Here are the predictions I made at the beginning of the year and a recap of how things actually turned out.

1) The most beaten down asset classes from '08 (housing, financials, emerging markets) will be some of the best performing in '09. Grade = B-

S&P Performance = 30% gain

Housing (REIT's) = 40% gain

Financials = 25% gain

Emerging Markets = 75% gain

I hit the emerging market prediction out of the park. Less enthusiastic about financials and housing. I would have been much better off including technology in this list (60% gain).

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2) Oil prices, which have plummeted from $147 a barrel to just around $35 a barrel, will reverse course and revisit the $70 to $80 range in '09. Grade = A+

Oil spent the majority of the year trading between $60 and $80 a barrel. The high for the year was $82.

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3) The unemployment rate which currently sits at around 7%, will top out at 11% in '09. Grade = B

The unemployment rate hit 10.2% in 2009

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4) The stock market bottomed on November 21st @ 7,392 on the DOW. Although the real economy will not start to see recovery until late '09 the stock market lows of late 2008 will hold. Grade = B-

The stock market bottom did not hit bottom until March at 6,500 on the Dow. However the real economy did begin to pick up in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2009 as I predicted

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5) The big three automakers will be back in Washington asking for additional aid in '09. As time progresses it will become increasingly clear that although the company is weak, Ford is the strongest of the three companies. The electric car will dominate the discussion in '09 and will become a sustainable reality in 2010. Grade = A+

The major automakers were all in the news in 2009 as they pushed Congress for additional aid and provided the catalyst for the cash for clunkers program. The electric car race heated up in 2009 and electric cars are expected to hit showrooms in 2010. General Motors and Chrysler struggled mightily in 2009, Ford on the other hand saw its stock rise almost 350% in '09.

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6) The Obama administration will hit the ground running with a massive stimulus package that attempts to address unemployment and the stalling economy. By the end of '09 talk will heat up about how the government has become too involved in the economy and calls for the "uncanny" power of free markets will return. Grade = A

$700 billion+ sure counts as massive in my books. Regarding the talk of government involvement in the economy all you have to do is look to the debate surrounding restrictions on pay and financial regulation to realize that the "free market cheerleaders" are back.

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7) It will become increasingly clear next year that our world's most precious resource is not oil, but water. Today, almost one in eight people in the world do not have access to clean drinking water. By 2025, more than two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible to mobilize the water resources needed to meet the needs of agriculture, industry and households. Going green will no longer be a buzzword, it will become our generation's race to the moon. Grade = B

Going green most certainly gained steam in 2009. Companies now speak openly on sustainability and individuals are becoming increasingly aware of their carbon footprint. Water shortages received national news attention in 2009 and that shows no signs of abating.

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8) This amazing influx of government intervention will result in the inevitable uncovering of scandals and bribery with relation to the financial crisis. The programs have been thrown together, and oversight has been lacking, a recipe for disaster anywhere, especially in Washington. Grade = A-

The outcry over the government interaction has been unrelenting. It is hard to get accurate estimates on fraud but Marketwatch and Dow Jones have estimated fraud on stimulus money at more than $50 billion.

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9) The stock market volatility in '09 will pale in comparison to the volatility in '08. In the end the market will be positive for '09 in the realm of a 10-12% return on the Dow for the year. Grade = B+

The VIX is a measure of stock market volatility. This index went above 80 in 2008 representing huge volatility in the markets. In 2009 the VIX spent the majority of the year below 40 and is finishing the year as at around 20. My prediction on the return for the index was on the low side. The Dow gained about 25% on the year.


Coming Tuesday, 10 predictions for 2010...

Top 10 Searches of 2009

Yahoo just released their annual tally of the top 10 search topics of the past year:

1) Michael Jackson

2) Twilight 2

3) WWE

4) Megan Fox

5) Britney Spears

6) Naruto (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naruto)

7) American Idol

8) Kim Kardashian

9) NASCAR

10) RuneScape (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RuneScape)

Athlete of the Decade

Tiger Woods was named Athlete of the Decade by members of The Associated Press in a vote that was more about 10 years of performance than nearly four weeks of shocking headlines.

Woods received 56 of the 142 votes cast by AP member editors since last month. More than half of the ballots were returned after the Nov. 27 car accident outside his Florida home that set off sensational tales of infidelity.

Lance Armstrong, a cancer survivor who won the Tour de France six times this decade, finished second with 33 votes.

He was followed by Roger Federer, who won more Grand Slam singles titles than any other man, with 25 votes.

Record-setting Olympic swimmer Michael Phelps came in fourth with 13 votes, followed by New England quarterback Tom Brady (6) and sprinter Usain Bolt (4).

From: http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/news/story?id=4747530

Congress

Government by the People???

Well maybe, but not average people...

Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) - Estimated Net Worth $72 million

Senator Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ) - $74 million

Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WestVa) - $94 million

Representative Vernon Buchanan (R-Fla.) - $142 million

Representative Jared Polis (D-Colo.) - $152 million

Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) - $208 million

Senator Mark Warner (D-Va.) - $209 million

Senator Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.) - $214 million

Representative Jane Harman (D-Calif.) - $244 million

Representative Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) - $255 million

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33993791/

Happiest States

Andrew Oswald and Stephen Wu recently conducted a survey of U.S. citizens to determine which states were the happiest.

Their results come from a comparison of two data sets of happiness levels in each state, one that relied on participants' self-reported well-being and the other an objective measure that took into account a state's weather, home prices and other factors that are known reasons to frown (or smile).

The happiest states:

1. Louisiana
2. Hawaii
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Arizona
6. Mississippi
7. Montana
8. South Carolina
9. Alabama
10. Maine

They were also surprised at the least happy states, such as New York and Connecticut, which landed at the bottom two spots on the list.

"We were struck by the states that come at the bottom, because a lot of them are on the East Coast, highly prosperous and industrialized," Oswald said. "That's another way of saying they have a lot of congestion, high house prices, bad air quality."

He added, "Many people think these states would be marvelous places to live in. The problem is that if too many individuals think that way, they move into those states, and the resulting congestion and house prices make it a non-fulfilling prophecy."

From: http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20091217/sc_livescience/happieststatesrevealedbynewresearch

Obama

Matt Taibbi is a great writer for Rolling Stone and his recent article on President Obama is a must read:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/31234647/obamas_big_sellout

Tiger

From Bill Simmons @ ESPN:

With five weeks remaining in the aughts, pre-teens, double zeroes or whatever we end up calling the 2000s, the title for "Biggest Sports Story of the Decade" was up for grabs.

Michael Vick? Tim Donaghy? The Mitchell report? The Artest Melee? Barry Bonds? Pat Tillman? Eagle, Colorado? Roger Clemens? Andre Agassi's admission that he won Wimbledon with a weave?

You could have made a case for any of them.

And then ... Tiger happened.

Game over.

I'm calling it the "Tiger Zoo" instead of "TigerGate," only because we have to break the habit of slapping "gate" after everything. But the Tiger Zoo nailed every gotta-have-it component for a big-time story with legs.

First, it involved one of the most famous living athletes.

Second, it started definitively with a specific incident -- and not just any incident, but something that made us say, "Wait, this seems fishy, I wonder what really happened here ..." and quickly became more complex than we imagined.

Third, it built steam over the next week, crossed into the mainstream and dominated conversations, e-mails and tweets.

Fourth, it transformed our collective perception of a famous person and made us re-evaluate every opinion we had about him.

Fifth, it grew so enormous so quickly that everyone with a forum (radio show, column, blog, whatever) felt obligated to come up with an angle on it.

The whole article, as are all of Bill Simmons' articles, well worth the read.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/091211

Another great ESPN article on Tiger:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=reilly_rick&id=4727383

The CALM Act

Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is ready to take on that annoying blast of sound when TV commercials are just too loud and wants to compel the Federal Communications Commission to fix it and require the ads to be at the same decibel level as the programming.

Whitehouse has introduced legislation called the Commercial Advertisement Loudness Mitigation Act of 2009, or CALM.

Democrats say the FCC has received consumer complaints about commercials being louder than television shows since the 1960s. In the 25 quarterly reports on consumer complaints released by the FCC since 2002, 21 have listed as a top complaint the loudness of television commercials.

From: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/12/10/2148946.aspx

$4.8 Trillion -- In Interest!!

More than HALF of the $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to build up over the next decade will be interest.

HALF!!

$4.8 trillion!! That's trillion with a "T".

In 2015 alone, the estimated interest due - $533 billion - is equal to a third of the federal income taxes expected to be paid that year, said Charles Konigsberg, chief budget counsel of the Concord Coalition, a deficit watchdog group.

From: http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/19/news/economy/debt_interest/index.htm

One Hit Wonders

Billboard Magazine has released its list for the top one hit wonders of the decade:

#1 was.....

Daniel Powter with "Bad Day"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH476CxJxfg

Congratulations, kinda.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091207/ap_en_mu/us_music_one_hit_wonder

Social Networking to the Extreme

You have to see this to believe it:

http://laughingsquid.com/groom-updates-facebook-twitter-at-the-alter-while-getting-married/

NFL's Top Sellers

Highest grossing NFL Teams in terms of merchandise sales this season:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. New York Giants
5. Chicago Bears
6. New England Patriots
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Denver Broncos
9. Indianapolis Colts
10. New Orleans Saints


Best selling NFL jerseys this season:

1. Brett Favre
2. Troy Polamalu
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Tom Brady
5. Peyton Manning
6. Jay Cutler
7. Ben Roethlisberger
8. Eli Manning
9. Tony Romo
10. Mark Sanchez

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34259984

1 in 8

From the New York Times:

With food stamp use at record highs and climbing every month, a program once scorned as a failed welfare scheme now helps feed one in eight Americans and one in four children.

More than 36 million people use inconspicuous plastic cards for staples like milk, bread and cheese, swiping them at counters in blighted cities and in suburbs pocked with foreclosure signs.

Virtually all have incomes near or below the federal poverty line, but their eclectic ranks testify to the range of people struggling with basic needs. They include single mothers and married couples, the newly jobless and the chronically poor, longtime recipients of welfare checks and workers whose reduced hours or slender wages leave pantries bare.

The entire article is long, but well worth the read: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/us/29foodstamps.html?_r=2&hp

4 Pillars

Thomas Friedman, the NY Times columnist, and author of The World is Flat, recently wrote that:

My own foreign policy thinking since 9/11 has been based on four pillars:

1. The Warren Buffett principle: Everything I’ve ever gotten in life is largely due to the fact that I was born in this country, America, at this time with these opportunities for its citizens. It is the primary obligation of our generation to turn over a similar America to our kids.

2. Many big bad things happen in the world without America, but not a lot of big good things. If we become weak and enfeebled by economic decline and debt, as we slowly are, America may not be able to play its historic stabilizing role in the world. If you didn’t like a world of too-strong-America, you will really not like a world of too-weak-America — where China, Russia and Iran set more of the rules.

3. The context within which people live their lives shapes everything — from their political outlook to their religious one. The reason there are so many frustrated and angry people in the Arab-Muslim world, lashing out first at their own governments and secondarily at us — and volunteering for “martyrdom” — is because of the context within which they live their lives. That was best summarized by the U.N.’s Arab Human Development reports as a context dominated by three deficits: a deficit of freedom, a deficit of education and a deficit of women’s empowerment. The reason India, with the world’s second-largest population of Muslims, has a thriving Muslim minority (albeit with grievances but with no prisoners in Guantánamo Bay) is because of the context of pluralism and democracy it has built at home.

4. One of the main reasons the Arab-Muslim world has been so resistant to internally driven political reform is because vast oil reserves allow its regimes to become permanently ensconced in power, by just capturing the oil tap, and then using the money to fund vast security and intelligence networks that quash any popular movement. Look at Iran.

Hence, post-9/11 I advocated that our politicians find sufficient courage to hike gasoline taxes and seriously commit ourselves to developing alternatives to oil. Economists agree that this would ultimately bring down the global price, and slowly deprive these regimes of the sole funding source that allows them to maintain their authoritarian societies. People do not change when we tell them they should; they change when their context tells them they must.

A League of their Own

Phyllis Patterson is 78 years old, lives at the Beaumont Rehabilitation and Skilled Nursing Center in Northbridge, MA.

She is also an avid fantasy football participant.

In just two months, attendance at televised Sunday afternoon games in the third-floor common room at the Nursing Center has doubled, and about a dozen seniors between the ages of 77 and 93 earn points weekly depending on the performance of their NFL teams.

You can learn more about the fantasy football adventures in Northbridge here:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/11/09/fantasy_football_giving_these_residents_a_kick_sundays/

Global Warming & Boston

A new report out by World Wildlife Fund and insurer Allianz warns that sea levels could rise along the U.S. coast a whopping 26 inches by 2050 as the world warms.

That would place assets worth $7.4 trillion at risk along the US coast.

$463 billion worth of those assets are in Boston, which is cited as the city with the fourth greatest risk exposure in the study.

The top three are Miami with $2.8 trillion; New York with $1.8 trillion and New Orleans with $753 billion.

The report comes several weeks before the world’s nations meet in Copenhagen to work toward a binding agreement to lower greenhouse gases from power plants, cars, and factories that are warming the earth and causing sea levels to rise.

$500 @ Birth

Here is a snapshot of an article from US News & World Report:

Imagine a world in which every baby receives a trust fund at birth.

It might sound like a fairy tale, but being born into money -- or at least into a $500 savings account -- could soon become a reality for all children born in the United States.

Lawmakers are considering a bill that would give each newborn just that, with the goal of promoting savings that would later be used for education, a first home or retirement.

The ASPIRE (America Saving for Personal Investment, Retirement and Education) Act would give each child born in the United States a $500 savings account. Low-income children would receive additional funding, and all participants could add to their accounts over time.

The purpose of the accounts, says Reid Cramer, the director of the Asset Building Program at the New America Foundation, would be to get people invested in their futures. "Having an asset has the potential to change the way people think and plan for their future, and sometimes those effects can be generated just from small asset holdings," he says, adding that it's possible for people to build significant savings over time.

The ASPIRE Act also would pair the creation of the accounts with financial literacy programs in schools.

From: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveMoney/juniors-first-paycheck-500-dollars-at-birth.aspx

Healthcare Remix

Obama and the rapper T-Pain discuss healthcare:

$5 Hero

Stuart Frankel isn't what you'd call a power player in the world of franchising. Five years ago he owned two small Subway sandwich shops at either end of Miami's Jackson Memorial Hospital. After noticing that sales sagged on weekends, he came up with an idea: He would offer every footlong sandwich on Saturday and Sunday for $5, about a buck less than the usual price.

Instead of dealing with idle employees and weak sales, Frankel suddenly had lines out the door. Sales rose by double digits. Nobody, least of all Frankel, knew it at the time, but he had stumbled on a concept that has unexpectedly morphed from a short-term gimmick into a national phenomenon that has turbocharged Subway's performance.

In fact, the $3.8 billion in sales generated nationwide by the $5 footlong alone placed it among the top 10 fast-food brands in the U.S. for the year ended in August, according to NPD Group.

Subway's low-cost franchising model and mainstream appeal have allowed it to add 9,500 locations in the past five years, for a total of about 32,000 outlets. At its current growth rate of 40 new stores a week, Subway is poised to surpass McDonald's in worldwide locations sometime early next year.

Frankel's $5 footlong idea illustrates how a huge company can wake up and eventually seize on a good idea that's not generated at headquarters. Frankel, along with two other local managers in economically ravaged South Florida, ceaselessly championed the idea to Subway's corporate leadership amid widespread skepticism.

Once it was approved, Subway's marketing team quickly generated a memorable campaign that firmly established the $5 footlong nationwide.

For Frankel, the biggest surprise from his $5 promotion was that his profit margins didn't decline. Many promotions are so-called loss leaders designed to draw customers in the hope they'll buy higher-margin items alongside the featured special. That's one reason most offers have a time limit. Frankel's food costs did rise as a percentage of sales, but that was offset by the overall boost in volume and the increased productivity of his employees, who had less down time.

From: http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/108119/the-accidental-hero.html?mod=career-selfemployment

China's Influence

President Obama's trip to China has highlighted the growing influence of China in the world economy. In case you needed more visual proof (Click for a larger image):



From: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/11/14/weekinreview/15chinagready.html

Free Health Clinics

On Saturday the National Association of Free Health Clinics, a nonprofit organization, sponsored a free health clinic at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans.

More than 100 doctors and 400 volunteers from around the U.S. were on hand to staff two halls of the convention center that had been converted into 52 examination areas sectioned off by blue curtains.

By the end of the day, more than 1,000 people had been examined.

MSNBC producer Rich Stockwell was there to cover the event and this is what he wrote:

After watching for hours as the patients moved through the clinic, it was hard to believe that I was in America.

Eighty-three percent of the patients they see are employed, they are not accepting other government help on a large scale, not "welfare queens" as some would like to have us believe. They are tax-paying, good, upstanding citizens who are trying to make it and give their kids a better life just like you and me.

They are victims of a system built with corporate profits at its center, which long ago forgot the moral imperative that should drive us to show compassion to our fellow men and women.

Health reform is not about Democrats or Republicans or who can score political points for the next election, it's about people. It's about fairness and justice in a system that knows none. I'd defy even the most hardened capitalist-loving-conservative to do what I did on Saturday and continue to pretend that the system in place right now is working.

There are no words that can accurately describe the quiet desperation on the faces of the patients. Every single one I spoke to, and every one I heard talking with doctors, expressed their gratitude for the event and wished that they were held more often.

Over 700-thousand people in Louisiana alone have no health care, most of them with jobs that don't offer insurance. Or, worse, they have to decide whether to pay for that or food and housing. Four patients were taken out on stretchers and admitted immediately to hospitals.

I spoke with a nurse who was there not as a volunteer, but as a patient. He works two part time jobs at hospitals providing quality care to those who have the one thing he doesn't. Many of his patients share his condition of high blood pressure, but they are fortunate to have insurance to pay for him to care for them while he goes without. His situation is not uncommon, he has tried for years to get more hours at one of his jobs so he will be eligible for benefits, but it hasn't happened yet. Our system of for-profit health care can't afford to give him and others benefits- might make the stock price drop a penny or two.

Politicians continue to tell us we are the most compassionate and caring people, and clearly we have done much good in the world. I left the event overwhelmed by the hard work and dedication of the volunteers, doctors, nurses, other medical professionals, as well as ordinary citizens who came to help. I am left with one overwhelming question: what does it say about us as a nation of people who can live in a country so rich and yet allow this to continue?

From: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33975919/ns/msnbc_tv-countdown_with_keith_olbermann

For more information on the amazing work done by the National Association of Free Health Clinics: http://www.freeclinics.us/

Buying Grades

GOLDSBORO, N.C --

A North Carolina school is being accused of selling grades for a program that awards extra test points for monetary donations to the school.

Susie Shepherd, principal of Rosewood Middle School in Goldsboro, said the scheme designed by a parent advisory council offers 10 extra points on two tests of the student's choosing in exchange for a $20 donation to the school.

Rebecca Garland, the chief academic officer for the state Department of Public Instruction, said she fears the program sends the wrong lesson about buying grades.

However, Shepherd said the program does not amount to selling grades because extra points on two tests are unlikely to have an effect on a student's final grade.

She said it is incorrect to suggest "one particular grade could change the entire focus of nine weeks."

Shepherd said no donations have yet been collected.

http://www.timesoftheinternet.com/127967.html

World's Most Powerful

Forbes Magazine has released its list of the World's Most Powerful People:

1) Barack Obama - United States President
2) Hu Jintao - President People's Republic of China
3) Vladimir Putin - Prime Minister Russia
4) Ben Bernanke - Chairman Federal Reserve
5) Sergey Brin and Larry Page - Google Founders
6) Carlos Slim - CEO Telmex
7) Rupert Murdoch - Chairman News Corp
8) Michael Duke - CEO Wal-Mart
9) Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al Saud - King Saudi Arabia
10 ) Bill Gates - Microsoft Founder & Former CEO

My Thoughts:

- Carlos Slim is a relatively unknown person to most Americans even though he is the 3rd richest man in the world and basically runs the the entire telecommunications industry in Mexico

- At first glance I thought the Google founders were too high on this list, upon further review, they might not be high enough.

- Will the President of China eclipse the President of the United States on this power list in my lifetime? I have to think that the odds are higher than one might think.

Quite the Gap

Here are the countries with the biggest gap between the rich and poor.

The percents are the share of income owned by the poorest 10% and the richest 10%.

#1 Hong Kong
Poorest 10%: 2%
Richest 10%: 35%

#2 Singapore
Poorest 10%: 2%
Richest 10%: 33%

#3 United States
Poorest 10%: 2%
Richest 10%: 30%

#4 Israel
Poorest 10%: 2%
Richest 10%: 29%

#5 Portugal
Poorest 10%: 2%
Richest 10%: 28%

From Business Week

90's vs 00's

With the decade coming to a close I recently overheard a very interesting discussion surrounding the quality difference between the movies of the 90s and the movies of the 00s. The consensus was that the quality of the movies from the 00's has lacked in comparision to the 90s.


Movies of the '90s

Titanic
Schindler's List
Silence of the Lambs
Pulp Fiction
Forrest Gump
Saving Private Ryan
Shawshank Redemption
American Beauty
Braveheart
Jurassic Park
Fight Club
The Matrix
Good Will Hunting


Movies of the '00s

The Departed
Brokeback Mountain
Slumdog Millionaire
Lord of the Rings
The Pianist
Gladiator
No Country for Old Men
A Beautiful Mind
A Dark Knight
Million Dollar Baby
Crash


The final conclusion was that at some level TV shows of the 00's, that act like movies, in that they must be watched in sequential order, have become big budget productions that rival and may exceed the quality of Hollywood Blockbusters:

Sopranos
24
Lost
Mad Men
Six Feet Under
West Wing
The Wire

What are your thoughts? Has big budget TV replaced movies in production extravagance and quality?

Airport Excess

An ABC news report on government waste that will make you cringe:

Perception

Here is an e-mail that is making its rounds online regarding perception...

On a cold January morning in 2007 at a Washington, DC Metro Station there was a man with a violin who played six Bach pieces for about 45 minutes.

During that time approximately 2,000 people went through the station, most of them on their way to work.

After 3 minutes, a middle aged man noticed there was a musician playing. He slowed his pace and stopped for a few seconds and then hurried to meet his schedule.

4 minutes later: The violinist received his first dollar: a woman threw the money in the hat and, without stopping, continued to walk.

6 minutes: A young man leaned against the wall to listen to him, then looked at his watch and started to walk again.

10 minutes: A 3-year-old boy stopped but his mother tugged him along hurriedly. The kid stopped to look at the violinist again, but the mother pushed hard and the child continued to walk, turning his head all the time.

This action was repeated by several other children. Every parent, without exception, forced their children to move on quickly.

45 minutes: The musician played continuously. Only 6 people stopped and listened for a short while. About 20 gave money but continued to walk at their normal pace. The man collected a total of $32.

1 hour: He finished playing and silence took over. No one noticed. No one applauded, nor was there any recognition.

No one knew this, but the violinist was Joshua Bell, one of the greatest musicians in the world.

He played one of the most intricate pieces ever written, with a violin worth $3.5 million dollars.

Two days earlier, Joshua Bell sold out a theater in Boston where the seats averaged $100 each.

This is a true story. Joshua Bell playing incognito in the Metro station was organized by the Washington Post as part of a social experiment about perception, taste and people's priorities.

The questions raised: in a common place environment at an inappropriate hour, do we perceive beauty? Do we stop to appreciate it? Do we recognize talent in an unexpected context?

One possible conclusion reached from this experiment could be this: If we do not have a moment to stop and listen to one of the best musicians in the world, playing some of the finest music ever written, with one of the most beautiful instruments ever made....how many other things are we missing?

Quite the interesting story.

For reference here is Joshua Bell's biography via his Wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Bell

Hypocrisy on the Public Option

From The Street.com:

Evan Bayh, the junior senator from Indiana, is in the middle of a heated debate in the Senate on whether a public option should be included as part of President Obama's health care reforms. An organizer of a group of so-called Senate Blue Dog Democrats, to date, Bayh's been a staunch opponent of any changes to the status quo in this debate.

Bayh is at best naive and disingenuous, and at worst supremely hypocritical in pushing his views as those of his voters.

His wife, Susan Bayh, sits on the board of WellPoint HealthCare in her hometown of Indianapolis. Over the last six years, Susan Bayh has received at least $2 million in compensation from WellPoint alone for serving on its board.

Evan Bayh, Susan Bayh and WellPoint seem to share almost identical views on health care and the current public option debate. Bayh recently refused to commit to voting for cloture on a bill with a public option saying: "It's not fair to ask people to facilitate the enactment of policies with which we ultimately disagree."

WellPoint spent $2.6 million in campaign contributions in 2008 for Democrat and Republican candidates. (Evan Bayh himself received more than $500,000 in campaign contributions from the health care industry in 2008.)

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10618234/4/evan-bayh-hypocrisy-on-the-public-option.html

Economics

Slow Day at the Office

Five colleagues record themselves simultaneously singing the Backstreet Boys.

The video speaks for itself:

Prosperity Rankings

The 2009 Legatum Prosperity Index, published on Tuesday and compiled by the Legatum Institute, ranks 104 countries on a definition of prosperity that combines economic growth with the level of personal freedoms and democracy in a country as well as measures of happiness and quality of life.

1) Finland
2) Switzerland
3) Sweden
4) Denmark
5) Norway
6) Australia
7) Canada
8) Netherlands
9) United States
10) New Zealand

From: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091027/lf_nm_life/us_prosperity_index

Best Kept Secrets

The Formula for Coca-Cola

The formula for Coca-Cola is so fiercely protected that the company pulled out of India in the 1970s because they would have been legally required to divulge their ingredient list to their government.

It even managed to stall a divorce case. When one of the Coke heirs ended his marriage to his wife, she demanded some of his great-grandfather's (the founder of Coca-Cola) original notes as part of her settlement. The company had to get involved and put a stop to it out of fear the notes could contain information on the formula.

Only two Coke executives know it. Urban legend says they each only know half, but that's false--that part was invented for an old ad campaign.

The original copy of the formula is kept in an undisclosed SunTrust Bank in Atlanta. To keep SunTrust on the side, Coke gave them some 48.3 million shares of stock as well as having executives from each company sit on the other's board of directors.




KFC's 11 Herbs and Spices

The secret KFC recipe dates back to the 1930s when Harland Sanders served chicken to people who stopped at his gas station in North Corbin, Kentucky. It was an amazing success.

And while he never joined the military, in 1936, he was given the title of honorary Kentucky Colonel by the governor in recognition of his contribution to the state's cuisine.

As with Coke, only two executives have access to the recipe for KFC's 11 herbs and spices.

The recipe is at KFC's headquarters. But unless you are Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible, you have no chance of getting it.

Here is security expert Bo Dietl explaining how the recipe is protected:

"The ceiling and the floor are secured with concrete bricks two feet thick. We put in motion sensors also CCTV that's hooked up to security downstairs. They have 24/7 armed guys downstairs, so in the amount of 30 seconds you'll have somebody up here. Once in here, you have to have two people with two keys and two different PIN numbers, and that's what you have to have. This safe is bolted down and there is no way anybody can get in here unauthorized without us knowing about it."

Book of Odds

The "Book of Odds" describes itself as "the missing dictionary, one filled not with words, but with numbers – the odds of everyday life."

Here are some of the random things I found out on their website today:

1 in 31.52 - The odds an NFL pass will be intercepted.

1 in 16 - The odds a person 16 years or older is unemployed

1 in 3.46 - The odds an adult in a city sleeps less than 6 hours a night

1 in 1.64 - The odds an adult usually eats breakfast

The site is vast and allows you to sign up for greater access and even allows you to suggest topics for them to investigate the relevant odds statements.

http://www.bookofodds.com/

Microsoft Retail Stores

Microsoft opened its first retail store last week to compete with the highly successful model Apple has employed in the retail space. The writers at PC World Magazine had some fun coming up with the ways Microsoft's stores will differ from Apple:

- Instead of Apple's sheer walls of glass, Microsoft's stores will have brushed steel walls dotted with holes -- reminiscent of Windows security.

- The store will have six different entrances: Starter, Basic, Premium, Professional, Enterprise, and Ultimate. While all six doors will lead into the same store, the Ultimate door requires a fee of $100 for no apparent reason.

- Instead of a "Genius Bar" (as Apple provides) Microsoft will offer an Excuse Bar. It will be staffed by Microsoft employees trained in the art of evading questions, directing you to complicated and obscure fixes, and explaining it's a problem with the hardware -- not a software bug.

- Store hours are undetermined. At any given time the store mysteriously shuts down instantaneously for no apparent reason. (No word yet on what happens to customers inside).

- Stores will be named Microsoft Live Retail Store with PC Services for Digital Lifestyle Enthusiasts.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/159521/10_ways_microsofts_retail_stores_will_differ_from_apple_stores.html

The Ink Tank

Here is a roundup of some recent editorial cartoons (the last one was added for its comedic effect):

Tax on Soda

The debate over a tax on sugary soft drinks — billed as a way to fight obesity and provide billions for health care reform — is starting to fizz over.

The tax would apply to soft drinks, energy drinks, sports beverages and many juices and ice teas, but not sugar-free diet drinks.

President Obama has said it is worth considering. The chief executive of Coca-Cola calls the idea outrageous, while skeptics point to political obstacles and question how much of an impact it would really have on consumers.

But a team of prominent doctors, scientists and policy makers says it could be a powerful weapon in efforts to reduce obesity, in the same way that cigarette taxes have helped curb smoking.

The group, which includes the New York City health commissioner, Thomas Farley, and Joseph W. Thompson, Arkansas surgeon general, estimates that a tax of a penny an ounce on sugary beverages would raise $14.9 billion in its first year, which could be spent on health care initiatives.

The study cited research on price elasticity for soft drinks that has shown that for every 10 percent rise in price, consumption declines 8 to 10 percent.

The soft drink industry has adamantly resisted the notion that its products are responsible for a national increase in obesity or that a tax would help curb the problem.

What do you think????

From: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32896454/

A Billion Here, A Billion There

The website "Information is Beautiful" has created something they are calling the billion dollar gram. It is an extremely interesting visual representation of the cost of various expenditures:

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-billion-dollar-gram/

Solar Roadways

There is approximately more than 5.7 million miles of paved highway in the U.S. and a small company from Idaho has an idea that could pave the way for a greener future.

Their solar roadway idea received a lot of attention after The Department of Transport awarded the company a $100,000 grant to construct a prototype 12' by 12' panel.

The top layer of the solar panels contains LEDs which would "paint" the surface with light and hold the microprocessors and communications device that would make highways "intelligent", flashing messages such as 'Slow' and 'Traffic Delays' to warn drivers.

The road would also be able to heat itself when it is covered in snow and ice AND act as a power source for electric cars, which would be able to be plugged into the road at points along its length.

http://www.americainfra.com/news/solar-roadways/

Odd Nobel

With all the news surrounding President Obama's recent Nobel Peace Prize, here are some odd stories surrounding the Nobel Prize...

1. Robert Lucas, winner of the 1995 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on the theory of "rational expectations," split his $1 million prize with his ex-wife. If there were a Nobel Prize for Foresight or Timing, she should be nominated, based on a clause in their divorce settlement from seven years earlier: "Wife shall receive 50 percent of any Nobel Prize." The clause expired on October 31, 1995. Had Lucas won any year after, he would have kept the whole million.

2. Physicist Lise Meitner, whose work helped lead to the discovery of nuclear fission, was reportedly nominated for the Nobel Prize 13 times without ever winning (though nominations are kept secret, so we don't know for sure). This makes her the Dynasty of the Nobel Prize scene -- that show was nominated for 24 Emmy Awards but never won. Other analogies we'd accept: The Color Purple (11 Oscar nominations in 1985, no wins), the Buffalo Bills or Minnesota Vikings (4 Super Bowl losses each without a victory) and William Jennings Bryan (three-time Democratic nominee for President, losing twice to McKinley and once to Taft.)

3. People who refused the prize:

• Le Duc Tho was awarded the 1973 Nobel Peace Prize with Henry Kissinger for their roles in brokering a Vietnam cease fire at the Paris Peace Accords. Citing the absence of actual peace in Vietnam, Tho declined to accept.

• Jean Paul Sartre waved off the 1964 Nobel Prize in Literature. His explanation: "It is not the same thing if I sign Jean-Paul Sartre or if I sign Jean-Paul Sartre, Nobel Prize winner. A writer must refuse to allow himself to be transformed into an institution, even if it takes place in the most honorable form."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/wayoflife/10/06/mf.nobel.odd.facts/

Could Not Agree More

Nicolas Kristof has been a columnist for the New York Times since 2001 and he has a great idea about how to jump start health care reform. Here are some of the highlights...

Let me offer a modest proposal: If Congress fails to pass comprehensive health reform this year, its members should surrender health insurance in proportion with the American population that is uninsured.

It may be that the lulling effect of having very fine health insurance leaves members of Congress insensitive to the dysfunction of our existing insurance system. So what better way to attune our leaders to the needs of their constituents than to put them in the same position?

About 15 percent of Americans have no health insurance, according to the Census Bureau. Another 8 percent are underinsured, according to the Commonwealth Fund, a health policy research group. So I propose that if health reform fails this year, 15 percent of members of Congress, along with their families, randomly lose all health insurance and another 8 percent receive inadequate coverage.

Congressional critics of President Obama’s efforts to achieve health reform worry that universal coverage will be expensive, while their priority is to curb social spending. So here’s their chance to save government dollars in keeping with their own priorities.

Those same critics sometimes argue that universal coverage needn’t be a top priority because anybody can get coverage at the emergency room. Let them try that with their kids.
Some members also worry that a public option (an effective way to bring competition to the insurance market) would compete unfairly with private companies and amount to a step toward socialism.

If they object so passionately to “socialized health,” why don’t they block their 911 service to socialized police and fire services, disconnect themselves from socialized sewers and avoid socialized interstate highways?

I wouldn’t wish the trauma of losing health insurance on anyone, but our politicians’ failure to assure health care for all citizens is such a longstanding and grievous breach of their responsibility that they deserve it.

In January 1917, Progressive Magazine wrote: “At present the United States has the unenviable distinction of being the only great industrial nation without universal health insurance." More than 90 years later, we still have that distinction.

Health care has often been debated as a technical or economic issue. That has been a mistake, I believe. At root, universal health care is not an economic or technical question but a moral one.

The collapse of health reform would be a political and policy failure, but it would also be a profound moral failure. Periodically, there are political questions that are fundamentally moral, including slavery in the 19th century and civil rights battles in the 1950s and ’60s. In the same way, allowing tens of thousands of Americans to die each year because they are uninsured is not simply unwise and unfortunate. It is also wrong — a moral blot on a great nation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/opinion/08kristof.html?_r=1&em

Special Comment on Health Care

Keith Olbermann dedicated his entire show on Wednesday to the fight for the health care reform.

He is right on the mark and it was an amazing show:









There has never been a more pressing time for health care reform in this country.

We need real reform and we need it now.

Todd Harrison

Todd Harrison was the head of trading for the Hedge Fund ran by Jim Cramer from 2001 to 2003 and the youngest vice president in the history of Morgan Stanley.

He is also the founder of Minyanville Media a website that is dedicated to increasing financial literacy.

He wrote a collection of articles chronicling his life from the dot com boom and 9/11 to the current credit crisis. It is focused mostly on his personal struggles, successes, and the subsequent lessons.

It is one of the most entertaining and enlightening things I have ever read, so if you get the chance I highly recommend it:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/23134

Pinball History

4 Things You Didn't Know About Pinball:

1. Pinball Was Illegal
Pinball was banned from the early 1940s to the mid-1970s in most of America's big cities, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, where the game was born and where virtually all of its manufacturers have historically been located. The stated reason for the bans: Pinball was a game of chance, not skill, and so it was a form of gambling. Many lawmakers also believed pinball to be a mafia-run racket and a time- and dime-waster for impressionable youth. (The machines robbed the "pockets of schoolchildren in the form of nickels and dimes given them as lunch money," New York Mayor Fiorello La Guardia wrote in a Supreme Court affidavit.)

2. NYPD Held Prohibition-Style Raids on Pinball In New York
The pinball ban was executed in a particularly dramatic fashion. Just weeks after Pearl Harbor was attacked, Mayor Fiorello La Guardia issued an ultimatum to the city's police force stating that their top priority would be to round up pinball machines and arrest their owners. La Guardia proceeded to spearhead massive Prohibition-style raids in which thousands of machines were rounded up in a matter of days, before being dramatically smashed with sledgehammers by the mayor and police commissioner. The machines were then dumped into the city's rivers.

3. Pinball Best-Seller
The best-selling pinball machine of all time is still "The Addams Family," which came out in 1991.

4. Pinball Is Still Illegal in Some Places
Just a few years ago, Nashville, Tenn. overturned its ban on children under 18 playing, or even standing within 10 feet of, a pinball machine. And, to this day, it is illegal to play pinball on Sundays in Ocean City, N.J.

Check out the website below for other amazing pinball facts:
http://tech.msn.com/products/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=21514777&GT1=40000

Made in the US, Not Really

The international nature of the following companies might surprise you...

Ben & Jerry's

9 Years ago the image of happy Vermont cows faded. The company was sold to Dutch-British conglomerate Unilever for $326 million. The sale put it in the hands of the world's largest ice cream manufacturer, right beside other formerly American ice cream icons Good Humor and Breyers.

Gerber Baby Food

In 1927, Dorothy Gerber had a brilliant idea: Mass-produce the baby food that women mashed, pulped and strained in their kitchens. In 1994, Sandoz, a Swiss pharmaceutical company, bought Gerber for about $3.7 billion. The merger of Sandoz and Ciba-Geigy in 1996 created Novartis (NVS), a drug company without a place for baby food. Gerber finally got a new home in 2007, when Swiss conglomerate Nestlé (NSRGY) bought the division from Novartis for $5.5 billion.

Rawlings

The sporting goods maker was founded in St. Louis in 1887 by brothers George and Alfred Rawlings. Baseball is as American as apple pie. But baseballs themselves -- the actual leather-covered spheres hurled in the major leagues -- are only as Americanas gallo pinto, the national dish of Costa Rica, where Rawlings balls have been made since 1986.

Trader Joe's

The first Trader Joe's opened its doors in 1967 in suburban Los Angeles, and today it has more than 300 locations in the United States. So it may be a surprise to know that Trader Joe's is actually German: Since 1979, Trader Joe's has been owned by German billionaire Theo Albrecht. The grocery chain has experienced massive growth in recent years, with sales expected to hit $7.2 billion this year by one estimate, three times what they were five years ago.

Levi's

Nearly a century ago Levi's invented the modern bluejeans, hand-stitching each pair in San Francisco. Levi's has since responded to the global marketplace by opening more than 50 plants and offices in 35 countries. Today it sells its products in 60,000 retail outlets around the world and derives nearly half its revenue from operations in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

From: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/made-in-america-no-longer.aspx

School Answering Machine

I'm sure there are many schools around the country that would love to use this message on their answering machine:

Plug in Hybrid Concept Car

BMW has put a lot of work into its Vision EfficientDynamics Concept Car.

The Vision concept is powered by three sources: two electric motors (one at each axle, giving the car all-wheel drive in electric mode) and a turbodiesel engine (in front of the rear axle).

The Vision EfficientDynamics also features a plug-in solution where the batteries can be recharged in 2.5 hours.

Running in full electric mode, the car can travel up to 31 miles.

With only the turbodiesel providing power, an approximate 400-mile range can be obtained using a 6.6-gallon tank.

In the European Union test cycle, the car achieved a fuel economy rating 62.5 miles per gallon.




http://autos.yahoo.com/auto-shows/frankfurt_auto_show_2009/1070/BMW-Vision-EfficientDynamics-Concept

Quite the Prediction

You have to see this to believe it:



I am still speechless.

Starbucks Density

How many Starbucks are within 5 miles of your house/office???

This is a question that has been circling online which is being dubbed your "Starbucks Density".

http://www.starbucks.com/retail/locator/default.aspx (to find the number of stores, scroll to the bottom of your results and find the "(Showing 1-20 of xxx Stores)"

Here are my results:
71 Stores within 5 miles of my office
73 Stores within 5 miles of my apartment

Believe it or not, there are addresses in Manhattan that are showing more than 200 Starbucks within 5 miles!!!!!!

The Elephant in the Room

Excellent article from the NY Times discussing the health care debate from a different perspective. Here is an excerpt:

No one disputes that the $2.3 trillion we devote to the health care industry is often spent unwisely, but the fact that the United States spends twice as much per person as most European countries on health care can be substantially explained, as a study released last month says, by our being fatter.

Even the most efficient health care system that the administration could hope to devise would still confront a rising tide of chronic disease linked to diet.

That’s why our success in bringing health care costs under control ultimately depends on whether Washington can summon the political will to take on and reform a second, even more powerful industry: the food industry.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, three-quarters of health care spending now goes to treat “preventable chronic diseases.” Not all of these diseases are linked to diet — there’s smoking, for instance — but many, if not most, of them are.

We’re spending $147 billion to treat obesity, $116 billion to treat diabetes, and hundreds of billions more to treat cardiovascular disease and the many types of cancer that have been linked to the so-called Western diet. One recent study estimated that 30 percent of the increase in health care spending over the past 20 years could be attributed to the soaring rate of obesity, a condition that now accounts for nearly a tenth of all spending on health care.

The American way of eating has become the elephant in the room in the debate over health care.

From: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/opinion/10pollan.html?em

Don't Stop

The opening track from Journey's seventh album, "Don't Stop Believing" was merely a modest hit when it was released in 1981, reaching No. 8 on Billboard's mainstream-rock chart.

"Open Arms" off the same album was actually the biggest hit, reaching No. 2.

Recently "Don't Stop Believing" has been reborn as the stadium anthem of choice and become one of the most popular sing-a-longs for people of all ages.

The song closed the popular Sopranos series, was prominently featured in the Family Guy television series, and is the featured song of the new Fox show Glee.

The most amazing feat happened in 2008 when it became the most downloaded song in iTunes history.

From ESPN's article on the greatest stadium anthem: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=paulas/090901

Maybe the greatest version ever of the song: