Farewell '09

10 Stories of the Decade

The Boston Globe recently ranked the top 10 news stories of the past decade:

10) Mapping of the human genome
After 13 years and just under $3 billion, government-sponsored scientists successfully mapped the human genome in 2003, identifying human genetic variations that may be the key to treating disease.

9) The rise of Google and new media
In 2000, Google became the world’s largest search engine and its name became a verb. The rise of social networking sites like Wikipedia, Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter soon followed.

8) Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the Gulf Coast Aug. 29, 2005, devastating New Orleans and, as the levees failed and the darkened city flooded, plunging the city into a period of civil disorder that shocked America.

7) Death of John Paul II; selection of Pope Benedict
Pope John Paul II reinvented the papacy during his 26-year reign, visiting more than 120 countries and reaching out to the world’s religious leaders as an advocate for human rights and religious tolerance.

6) The 2000 election
Americans learned the hard way that every vote counts when a tight presidential race and confusion over Florida’s election results spawned five weeks of ballot recounts that ended with a Supreme Court ruling in 2000 and the inauguration of President George W. Bush.

5) The ascension of China
China’s steady economic growth throughout the decade and resurgence as world finance leader was punctuated by the summer 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, even as some protested the event due to the country’s human rights abuses. China now holds $800 billion in US debt.

4) The War in Afghanistan
In the wake of 9/11, Congress authorized the use of force against Al Qaeda and the search for Osama bin Laden.

3) The War in Iraq
The war has so far cost more than 4,000 American lives and proved to be politically damaging for Republicans as well as Democrats.

2) The Election of Barack Obama
President Obama’s election as the first African-American president of the United States removed one of the most symbolic racial barriers in the country while reflecting the nation’s deep desire for change after eight years of George W. Bush in the White House.

1) Septemeber 11th
The attacks by Al Qaeda on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, claimed 2,752 lives and brought home to American soil large-scale terrorism.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/gallery/international_national_news_stories_of_decade/

Ten for Twenty Ten

10 predictions for 2010:

1) The 2010 mid-term elections will offer little change to the makeup of Congress. Although some believe that the Republicans will grab a massive number of seats, I think that when the dust settles, things will be little changed.

2) The trade in gold is crowded and seems eerily familiar to the bullishness surrounding crude oil in late 2007 when it was trading at $147 a barrel. Everyone has an opinion on gold, and most of the opinions are bullish. I believe that long term gold is a great trade, but I don't think 2010 is the year. In the precious metals space, silver, copper, platinum and other precious metals will outperform gold, but nothing will soar like most are expecting. The better place to be if you want commodity exposure is agricultural products like corn and wheat. Global food demand should lead to an upward bias in prices.

3) The unemployment rate will continue to hover around 10% in 2010. Although some economists are forecasting a significant improvement in the employment landscape, I don't see this occurring. Things won't get much worse, but I don't think things get much better.

4) Apple will release its tablet computer in early 2010 and it will truly revolutionize the landscape in technology. Microsoft will attempt to shift the media's focus to Windows 7 and Project Natal for the XBOX, but Apple will continue to take market share and media attention away from Microsoft. Before the end of the year multiple companies with release products with striking resemblance to the Apple tablet, resembling the smartphone trend following the release of the iPhone.

5) The potential legalization of Marijuana will become one of the most hotly debated issues of 2010. Fiscal budget deficits will require that state legislators consider all options to increase revenue. Multiple states will pass legislation that either legalizes small does or decriminalizes possession.

6) Amazon which is riding high with the success of the Kindle eReader will encounter a difficult 2010 as the consumer closes their wallets and the Kindle faces stiff competition from the Barnes and Noble Nook, the Sony eReader, and the Apple Tablet.

7) Twitter was the social media darling of 2009. I do not believe 2010 will be as kind to the the site of the tweet. Whether from increased competition or from the lack of a sustainable revenue model, I do not believe the site will have a successful year and will spend much less time in the news. The business of tweeting may be the future, I'm just not sure Twitter is the company that will make it profitable.

8) The recent rally in the stock market has many thinking that the worst has passed and the good times are here to stay. I believe that we are in for trouble in 2010 in the form of a consumer who stays in savings mode, a commercial real estate market teetering on the edge, and a government support system that cannot continue indefinitely. I believe the market will fall 5% for the year with many violent swings. The best place to invest will be large cap companies who generate a good portion of their sales abroad (McDonald's, Coke, ect.).

9) The United States will become soccer crazy during the summer. I'm envisioning Michael Phelps like hysteria towards our national soccer team during the World Cup in South Africa. It will start to become clear that soccer has a place among the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB in the eyes of American fans.

10) 2010 will be the year of 3D. More movies will be released in 3D and at-home-TV sets will begin to hit store shelves that are capable of handling 3D content. This will mark the start of a long term trend in media programming.

Please use the comments section to add your own predictions or to comment on mine. Thank you again for all your comments and support. Happy New Year!

'09 Prediction Recap

Here are the predictions I made at the beginning of the year and a recap of how things actually turned out.

1) The most beaten down asset classes from '08 (housing, financials, emerging markets) will be some of the best performing in '09. Grade = B-

S&P Performance = 30% gain

Housing (REIT's) = 40% gain

Financials = 25% gain

Emerging Markets = 75% gain

I hit the emerging market prediction out of the park. Less enthusiastic about financials and housing. I would have been much better off including technology in this list (60% gain).

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2) Oil prices, which have plummeted from $147 a barrel to just around $35 a barrel, will reverse course and revisit the $70 to $80 range in '09. Grade = A+

Oil spent the majority of the year trading between $60 and $80 a barrel. The high for the year was $82.

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3) The unemployment rate which currently sits at around 7%, will top out at 11% in '09. Grade = B

The unemployment rate hit 10.2% in 2009

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4) The stock market bottomed on November 21st @ 7,392 on the DOW. Although the real economy will not start to see recovery until late '09 the stock market lows of late 2008 will hold. Grade = B-

The stock market bottom did not hit bottom until March at 6,500 on the Dow. However the real economy did begin to pick up in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2009 as I predicted

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5) The big three automakers will be back in Washington asking for additional aid in '09. As time progresses it will become increasingly clear that although the company is weak, Ford is the strongest of the three companies. The electric car will dominate the discussion in '09 and will become a sustainable reality in 2010. Grade = A+

The major automakers were all in the news in 2009 as they pushed Congress for additional aid and provided the catalyst for the cash for clunkers program. The electric car race heated up in 2009 and electric cars are expected to hit showrooms in 2010. General Motors and Chrysler struggled mightily in 2009, Ford on the other hand saw its stock rise almost 350% in '09.

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6) The Obama administration will hit the ground running with a massive stimulus package that attempts to address unemployment and the stalling economy. By the end of '09 talk will heat up about how the government has become too involved in the economy and calls for the "uncanny" power of free markets will return. Grade = A

$700 billion+ sure counts as massive in my books. Regarding the talk of government involvement in the economy all you have to do is look to the debate surrounding restrictions on pay and financial regulation to realize that the "free market cheerleaders" are back.

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7) It will become increasingly clear next year that our world's most precious resource is not oil, but water. Today, almost one in eight people in the world do not have access to clean drinking water. By 2025, more than two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible to mobilize the water resources needed to meet the needs of agriculture, industry and households. Going green will no longer be a buzzword, it will become our generation's race to the moon. Grade = B

Going green most certainly gained steam in 2009. Companies now speak openly on sustainability and individuals are becoming increasingly aware of their carbon footprint. Water shortages received national news attention in 2009 and that shows no signs of abating.

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8) This amazing influx of government intervention will result in the inevitable uncovering of scandals and bribery with relation to the financial crisis. The programs have been thrown together, and oversight has been lacking, a recipe for disaster anywhere, especially in Washington. Grade = A-

The outcry over the government interaction has been unrelenting. It is hard to get accurate estimates on fraud but Marketwatch and Dow Jones have estimated fraud on stimulus money at more than $50 billion.

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9) The stock market volatility in '09 will pale in comparison to the volatility in '08. In the end the market will be positive for '09 in the realm of a 10-12% return on the Dow for the year. Grade = B+

The VIX is a measure of stock market volatility. This index went above 80 in 2008 representing huge volatility in the markets. In 2009 the VIX spent the majority of the year below 40 and is finishing the year as at around 20. My prediction on the return for the index was on the low side. The Dow gained about 25% on the year.


Coming Tuesday, 10 predictions for 2010...

Top 10 Searches of 2009

Yahoo just released their annual tally of the top 10 search topics of the past year:

1) Michael Jackson

2) Twilight 2

3) WWE

4) Megan Fox

5) Britney Spears

6) Naruto (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naruto)

7) American Idol

8) Kim Kardashian

9) NASCAR

10) RuneScape (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RuneScape)

Athlete of the Decade

Tiger Woods was named Athlete of the Decade by members of The Associated Press in a vote that was more about 10 years of performance than nearly four weeks of shocking headlines.

Woods received 56 of the 142 votes cast by AP member editors since last month. More than half of the ballots were returned after the Nov. 27 car accident outside his Florida home that set off sensational tales of infidelity.

Lance Armstrong, a cancer survivor who won the Tour de France six times this decade, finished second with 33 votes.

He was followed by Roger Federer, who won more Grand Slam singles titles than any other man, with 25 votes.

Record-setting Olympic swimmer Michael Phelps came in fourth with 13 votes, followed by New England quarterback Tom Brady (6) and sprinter Usain Bolt (4).

From: http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/news/story?id=4747530

Congress

Government by the People???

Well maybe, but not average people...

Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) - Estimated Net Worth $72 million

Senator Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ) - $74 million

Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WestVa) - $94 million

Representative Vernon Buchanan (R-Fla.) - $142 million

Representative Jared Polis (D-Colo.) - $152 million

Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) - $208 million

Senator Mark Warner (D-Va.) - $209 million

Senator Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.) - $214 million

Representative Jane Harman (D-Calif.) - $244 million

Representative Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) - $255 million

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33993791/

Happiest States

Andrew Oswald and Stephen Wu recently conducted a survey of U.S. citizens to determine which states were the happiest.

Their results come from a comparison of two data sets of happiness levels in each state, one that relied on participants' self-reported well-being and the other an objective measure that took into account a state's weather, home prices and other factors that are known reasons to frown (or smile).

The happiest states:

1. Louisiana
2. Hawaii
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Arizona
6. Mississippi
7. Montana
8. South Carolina
9. Alabama
10. Maine

They were also surprised at the least happy states, such as New York and Connecticut, which landed at the bottom two spots on the list.

"We were struck by the states that come at the bottom, because a lot of them are on the East Coast, highly prosperous and industrialized," Oswald said. "That's another way of saying they have a lot of congestion, high house prices, bad air quality."

He added, "Many people think these states would be marvelous places to live in. The problem is that if too many individuals think that way, they move into those states, and the resulting congestion and house prices make it a non-fulfilling prophecy."

From: http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20091217/sc_livescience/happieststatesrevealedbynewresearch

Obama

Matt Taibbi is a great writer for Rolling Stone and his recent article on President Obama is a must read:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/31234647/obamas_big_sellout

Tiger

From Bill Simmons @ ESPN:

With five weeks remaining in the aughts, pre-teens, double zeroes or whatever we end up calling the 2000s, the title for "Biggest Sports Story of the Decade" was up for grabs.

Michael Vick? Tim Donaghy? The Mitchell report? The Artest Melee? Barry Bonds? Pat Tillman? Eagle, Colorado? Roger Clemens? Andre Agassi's admission that he won Wimbledon with a weave?

You could have made a case for any of them.

And then ... Tiger happened.

Game over.

I'm calling it the "Tiger Zoo" instead of "TigerGate," only because we have to break the habit of slapping "gate" after everything. But the Tiger Zoo nailed every gotta-have-it component for a big-time story with legs.

First, it involved one of the most famous living athletes.

Second, it started definitively with a specific incident -- and not just any incident, but something that made us say, "Wait, this seems fishy, I wonder what really happened here ..." and quickly became more complex than we imagined.

Third, it built steam over the next week, crossed into the mainstream and dominated conversations, e-mails and tweets.

Fourth, it transformed our collective perception of a famous person and made us re-evaluate every opinion we had about him.

Fifth, it grew so enormous so quickly that everyone with a forum (radio show, column, blog, whatever) felt obligated to come up with an angle on it.

The whole article, as are all of Bill Simmons' articles, well worth the read.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/091211

Another great ESPN article on Tiger:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=reilly_rick&id=4727383