9.28.2008

AIG Bailout Math

Another reason you can't believe everything you read. Here is an excerpt from an e-mail gaining a bunch of circulation on the web:


I'm against the 85 billion dollar bailout of AIG. Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We Deserve It Dividend . To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18 years or older. So divide 200 million adults into $85 billon that equals $425,000. My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.

Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't. Sure it's a crazy idea that can "never work." But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party ! How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC.



Great Idea. Here's the problem: If you take 85 billion and divide it by 200 million you get $425 not $425,000.

Whether or not the bailout of AIG was the right move is certainly up for debate but whatever your position your math should always be correct, not $424,575 per person off the mark.

Thanks for the heads up Al.



9.26.2008

$700 Billion Bailout

It took the United States 209 years, from the founding of the republic till 1998, to compile the first $5 trillion in national debt. In the decade since, $6 trillion in debt has been added. The United States has borrowed more money in the past decade than in all of America's previous history combined. Six trillion dollars borrowed in a single decade and $1.5 trillion borrowed in 2008 alone.

The $700 billion number being touted as the only true savior of the financial markets is quite the request from Paulson who has been fundamentally wrong about this crisis every step of the way. Here are the best links I have found describing what this bailout really means (The Daily Show Video captures the entire crisis perfectly).


The Spin Game: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/latest-paulson.html#more

Daily Show - Debt to America: http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=185195&title=debt-to-america

Plan's Mystery: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/business/25value.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin



Best Quote Thus Far:
"We will be told that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have finally gotten it right. The scope and size of the proposed program will arrest the decline in home prices, restore stability to the financial markets, enable banks to get back to the business of lending, and restore the confidence of the American consumer. While the program certainly has each of these points as a goal, the amount of time to achieve each goal is unknowable, but an important factor. Moses was told he would lead the Jews to the Promised Land. He didn’t know it would take 40 years. And, in all due respect to Bernanke and Paulsen, Moses was working with God. They are working with Congress."

-Jim Welsh, Welsh Money Management



9.25.2008

Bill Gates vs. General Motors

At a recent computer expo (COMDEX) Bill Gates reportedly compared the computer industry with the auto industry and stated, "If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry as, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1,000 miles to the gallon."

In response to Bill's comments, General Motors issued a press release stating:

If GM had developed technology like Microsoft, we would all be driving cars with the following characteristics:
1. For no reason whatsoever, your car would crash twice a day.

2. Every time they repainted the lines on the road, you would have to buy a new car.

3. Occasionally your car would die on the freeway for no reason. You would have to pull over to the side of the road, close all of the windows, shut off the car, restart it, and reopen the windows before you could continue.

4. Occasionally, executing a maneuver such as a left turn would cause your car to shut down and refuse to restart, in which case you would have to restart the engine.

5. Macintosh would make a car that was powered by the sun, was reliable, five times as fast and twice as easy to drive, but would run on only five percent of the roads.

6. The oil, water temperature, and alternator warning lights would all be replaced by a single "This car has performed An Illegal Operation."

7. The airbag system would ask "Are you sure" before deploying.

8. Occasionally, for no reason whatsoever, your car would lock you out and refuse to let you in until you simultaneously lifted the door handle, turned the key and grabbed ahold of the radio attenna.

9. Every time a new car was introduced, car buyers would have to learn how to drive all over again because none of the controls would operate in the same manner as the old car.

10. You'd have to press the "Start" button to turn on the engine.

9.22.2008

Economic Turmoil

It has been well over a year since the word subprime entered our daily dialogue. The issues surrounding the credit crisis have lasted longer than most thought possible, and provided wider repercussions than many fathomed. It has led to bailouts, stimulus packages, and seemingly constant turmoil in the stock market. Bear Stearns is no more, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been nationalized, Lehman Brothers has gone bankrupt, and the world's largest insurer, AIG, has been rescued by the Federal Reserve. In addition, short-selling, a beacon of our "free" market, has been taken off the table and a $700 billion package has been unveiled to allow the federal government to buy the mortgage loans that are causing the credit markets to seize up. What once seemed impossible now seems commonplace.


(Click for NY Times graphic showing the unbelievable transformation of the financial sector)


Wall Street is coming off it most turbulent week in decades. It is now the taxpayers, many of them diligent and prudent, who will pick up the tab for Wall Street's insatiable appetite for profits. This past Thursday and Friday represented the greatest two day rally in the Dow Jones since October 30-31, 1929. The 29% rally in 1929 was, you guessed it, followed by the 86% decline now referred to as the Great Depression. Paulson and company may have saved us from financial Armageddon, but I believe it is too early to sound the all-clear.

9.17.2008

Obama v. Palin

Just Received this.......

* If you grow up in Hawaii, raised by your grandparents, you're "exotic, different."
* Grow up in Alaska eating moose burgers, a quintessential American story.


* If your name is Barack you're a radical, unpatriotic Muslim.
* Name your kids Willow, Trig, and Track, and you're a maverick.


* Graduate from Harvard Law School as President of the Law Review, you're unstable.
* Attend 5 different small colleges before graduating, you're well grounded.


* If you spend 3 years as a community organizer, create a voter registration drive that registers 150,000 new voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law professor, spend 8 years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people, become chairman of the state Senate's Health and Human Services committee, spend 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of 13 million people while sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran's Affairs committees, you don't have any real leadership experience.
* If your total resume is: local weather girl, 4 years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, 20 months

as the governor of a state with only 650,000 people, then you're qualified to become the country's second highest ranking executive.

* If you have been married to the same woman for 19 years while raising 2 beautiful daughters, all within Protestant churches, you're not a real Christian.
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, and left your disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you're a Christian.


* If you teach responsible, age appropriate sex education, including the proper use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.
* If, while governor, you staunchly advocate abstinence only, with no other option in sex education in your state's school system while your unwed teen daughter ends up pregnant , you're very responsible.


* If your wife is a Harvard graduate lawyer who gave up a position in a prestigious law firm to work for the betterment of her inner city community, then gave that up to raise a family, your family's values don't represent America's.
* If your husband is nicknamed "First Dude", with at least one DUI conviction and no college education, who didn't register to vote until age 25 and once was a member of a group that advocated the secession of Alaska from the USA, your family is extremely admirable.


OK, much clearer now.

9.15.2008

Hard Truths Behind Presidential Promises

As the election season heats up the buzzwords are flying on the campaign trail. Each party has a economic policy that prevents recession, a fiscal policy that strengthens social security, a foreign policy that keeps us safe, and a health care policy that improves care. Here are just a few of the obstacles in the face of whatever party moves into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue:

War:
-We spend about $16 billion a month on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

-The annual U.S. budget for autism research ($108 million) is spent every four hours in Iraq.
-A month in Iraq and Afghanistan could provide the yearly salary for 240,000 additional public school teachers or give 640,000 students 4 year scholarships to public universities.
-In December of 2007 the Boston Globe stated that according to World Bank estimates the cost of the Iraqi war could have fed and educated the world's poor for seven years.

Energy:
-America is just 5% of the world's population, yet we burn over 25% of the oil.
-By 2050 the planet's population will have grown from 6.6 billion today to 9.6 billion.
-The International Energy Agency predicts that the world's demand for energy will grow by over 50 percent from now until 2030.

Retirement:
-Over 70 million baby boomers will retire over the next two decades.
-Beginning in 2015 the Social Security program will begin to spend more in benefits than it collects in taxes.
-Between 2037 and 2075, the Social Security program is projected to run annual deficits totaling 30 trillion dollars.

Health Care:
-45 million Americans are uninsured.
-In 2007 premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance rose an average of 6.1 percent, while wages went up by 3.7 percent.
-Premiums for family coverage have surged by 78 percent since 2001, while wages have gone up 19 percent.
-Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security which consume about 18% of GDP today, will consume over 28% of GDP by 2050.

There are a host of other issues, both positive and negative, that will impact the way the next administration handles the challenges that lay ahead. For a glimpse at the presidential candidates position on the issues visit:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0806/gallery.election_issues/index.html




9.11.2008

9.09.2008

Election Videos

A collection of the election videos I have been e-mailed over the past couple of days. Enjoy.

9.07.2008

Acceptance Speeches: Obama vs. McCain

The website wordle.net allows you to take a collection of text and turn it into a "world cloud". The website uses a computer algorithim which gives greater prominence to the words that appear the most in the text. Below are the word clouds I created from the acceptance speeches given by John McCain and Barack Obama at their respective conventions. Wordle.net is truly a revolutionary website allowing you to create word clouds from any text imaginable. (Click each cloud for a larger picture.)

Obama:




McCain:

One of the starkest differences between the two speeches is highlighted by Obama's word cloud. Obama decided to use McCain's name 21 times in his speech, a style not employed by McCain who mentioned Obama only 6 times. McCain instead referred most often to "his opponent" and "the democrats". Both speeches set viewing records for political conventions. McCain's speech was seen by 38.9 million households and Obama's was seen by 38.4 million. It truly will be an amazing 2 months on the campaign trail leading up to this historic election.

9.04.2008

The First Post

This above all else, is an experiment in blogging. I envision this blog as a medium for posting those interesting websites that seem to find their way into our daily e-mails and conversations. My hope is that this blog will be the result of the combined collaboration of everyone who reads it. Any suggestions are appreciated.