10 for 2010 Recap

At the beginning of 2010 I posted 10 predictions for the upcoming year. Here is my report card:

1) The 2010 mid-term elections will offer little change to the makeup of Congress. Although some believe that the Republicans will grab a massive number of seats, I think that when the dust settles, things will be little changed.

C+ 
The Republicans gained 63 house seats and picked up 6 senate seats. They now control the House but they did fail to gain control of the Senate.

2) The trade in gold is crowded and seems eerily familiar to the bullishness surrounding crude oil in late 2007 when it was trading at $147 a barrel. I believe that long term gold is a great trade, but in the precious metals space, silver, copper, platinum and other precious metals will outperform gold.

A- 
Funds that track Gold were up ~25% this year. In comparison silver was up 70% and other precious metals and commodity funds performed much better.

3) The unemployment rate will continue to hover around 10% in 2010. Although some economists are forecasting a significant improvement in the employment landscape, I don't see this occurring. Things won't get much worse, but I don't think things get much better.


A
The number has ranged between 9.60% and 9.90% all year.

4) Apple will release its tablet computer in early 2010 and it will truly revolutionize the landscape in technology. Before the end of the year multiple companies with release products with striking resemblance to the Apple tablet, resembling the smartphone trend following the release of the iPhone.

A+
The iPad has been a massive success and numerous companies have already attempted to copy it. Over 7,500,000 were sold in the first 6 months alone.

5) The potential legalization of Marijuana will become one of the most hotly debated issues of 2010. Fiscal budget deficits will require that state legislators consider all options to increase revenue. Multiple states will pass legislation that either legalizes small does or decriminalizes possession.

B+
In 2010, Proposition 19, titled the "Regulate, Control, and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010", qualified for the November California ballot. Other states have implemented or discussed additional medical marijuana or other laws due to pressure on the budget and pressure from citizens.

6) Amazon which is riding high with the success of the Kindle eReader will encounter a difficult 2010 as the consumer closes their wallets and the Kindle faces stiff competition from the Barnes and Noble Nook, the Sony eReader, and the Apple Tablet.

A-
The company has never released sales figures but the Kindle marketplace is now on the iPhone and iPad so my belief is that the sales of the device are slowing. Apple stock was up 50% this year versus Amazon which was up 30%.


7) Twitter was the social media darling of 2009. I do not believe 2010 will be as kind to the the site of the tweet. Whether from increased competition or from the lack of a sustainable revenue model, I do not believe the site will have a successful year and will spend much less time in the news.

B+
Facebook is putting more focus on the type of status updates that Twitter is based around. Twitter is still extremely relevant but the competition is growing.

8) The recent rally in the stock market has many thinking that the worst has passed and the good times are here to stay. I believe that we are in for trouble in 2010 in the form of a consumer who stays in savings mode, a commercial real estate market teetering on the edge, and a government support system that cannot continue indefinitely. I believe the market will fall 5% for the year with many violent swings. The best place to invest will be large cap companies who generate a good portion of their sales abroad (McDonald's, Coke, ect.).

B-
The major market averages were up 10-15% this year but the swings were violent. Down 7% in August and up 8% in September. Coke was up 23% and McDonald's was up 16%.

9) The United States will become soccer crazy during the summer. I'm envisioning Michael Phelps like hysteria towards our national soccer team during the World Cup in South Africa.

A
The US made a great run that ended in disappointment but the enthusiasm was off the charts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbn3rOPmR9w&safety_mode=true&persist_safety_mode=1

10) 2010 will be the year of 3D. More movies will be released in 3D and at-home-TV sets will begin to hit store shelves that are capable of handling 3D content. This will mark the start of a long term trend in media programming.

A
Most major Television companies are rolling out 3D capable sets and there are no signs that it will slow down.


I will be positing 11 predictions for 2011 right after the New Years.

Have a great holiday.

WordLens

200 Countries, 200 Years

One of the most interesting videos I have seen recently:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo&feature=player_embedded&safety_mode=true&persist_safety_mode=1

 

Hedge Fund Republic

The NY Times with a very interesting article on income inequality:


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/18/opinion/18kristof.html?_r=2&src=me&ref=homepage

Invading the Classroom

Hand-held devices and educational clickers to engage students are invading the classroom:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/16/education/16clickers.html?src=me&ref=general

The Wealth Divide

Any time anyone tries to tell you that tax cuts for the wealth trickle down or that stock market appreciation is good for all Americans, remind them that:

http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2003/03may/may03interviewswolff.html

iPhones For Toddlers

What is the favorite toy of some toddlers? Would you believe it's an iPhone?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/fashion/17TODDLERS.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=homepage