2011 Prediction Recap

At the beginning of this year I made 11 predictions for the upcoming year. Here are the grades:

1) The global economic worry of 2010 was the shaky balance sheets of European countries. The global economic worry of 2011 will be the unstable balance sheets of US States.
Grade = C
The European economy continued to be the main worry of 2011 even though the balance sheets of American states are starting to get more focus, specifically the sustainability of pension plans.

2) Global tensions will stay in the headlines with Iran, North Korea,  and Pakistan continuing to dominate the news stories however cyber crimes will gain more press as people worry about a debilitating financial attack.
Grade = A
Attacks on the Canadian Government, Google, and PlayStation's online network highlighted a cyber attack filled 2011



3) The Republicans ran and won in the mid-term elections on the principle of deficit reduction (then pushed for a tax cut that added $700 billion to the deficit???). In 2011 it will become extremely clear that campaign promises will go unfulfilled and they have no serious plan or intention to reduce the deficit.
Grade =A
Congress utterly failed to pass meaningful deficit reduction and Republicans were unwilling to budge on any sort of revenue to help to provide a balanced approach to deficit reduction

4) The economic landscape will begin to show real signs of improvements in 2011. Unemployment will remain high but it will be mainly due to new people entering the workforce due to improved prospects. There will be meaningful private sector job creation.
Grade = A
The unemployment rate recently dropped to 8.6% and we have now experienced 10 straight months of gains in private sector jobs.

5) The student loan business will be in focus for deceptive practices in the same way the mortgage lenders have been scrutinized recently. Additionally, for-profit colleges will be in the cross-hairs of Washington for increased legislation due to their sales practices.
Grade = B+
The consumer bureau is now investigating private loan companies in response to a provision in the Dodd/Frank bill. Overall scrutiny of these companies is increasing regarding their advertising practices and financial tactics.

6) Apple will continue to make major strides in the smartphone and tablet industries. A iPhone for Verizon and a second generation iPad will be the highlights of a stellar 2011. Multiple news stories will focus on corporations and educational institutions utilizing the iPad with great success. No other company will come close to the sales numbers of the iPad with their tablet attempts.
Grade = A+
92% of Fortune 500 companies are using or testing iPads and the iPhone for Verizon and now Sprint have been huge hits. Over 40 million iPads have been sold to date far outstripping other tablet competitors.

7) 2011 will continue what will be regarded in the future as the "Decade of the App". Buying software a-la-carte will replace the old method and iTunes will lead this category long into the future.
Grade = A
Little surprise here. iTunes and the Apple app store continue to dominate.

8) With gas prices rising the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf will be major news stories as the electric car becomes a reality in many homes across America.
Grade =C-
Although receiving a decent amount of press, the sales to date have been lackluster.

9) The sports headlines will be dominated by the potential for lockouts in either the NFL or NBA. Sports teams will continue to have difficulty filling seats as the convenience of watching at home in surround sound HDTV trumps the experience of being at the game for many fans.
Grade = A
A potential lockout in the NFL and a lockout that will cause a shortened NBA season dominated headlines. Teams are also publicly beginning to investigate options to make the experience of being in the stadium more enjoyable than watching at home

10) The best place to invest in 2011 will be large-cap, dividend paying, US equities. This group has underperformed recently and it will see a resurgence in 2011.
Grade = B
Large cap dividend paying stocks only slightly outperformed the broader market in 2011.

11) President Obama will see his approval rating rise sharply in 2011. The Republicans will spend the year attempting to find a unifying force to lead them in the 2012 presidential election. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin's names along with many others will be tossed around but by the end of the year it will be clear that the Republicans have no viable candidate that can deny Obama re-election.
Grade = C
Obama's approval rating this year has fallen from 48% to 43%, although I was correct that the Republicans would toss out many candidates and have difficulty finding one who could defeat Obama (the polls now show a toss-up or an Obama win for all possible 2012 match-ups).

Coming soon...the 2012 predictions...