Ten for Twenty Ten

10 predictions for 2010:

1) The 2010 mid-term elections will offer little change to the makeup of Congress. Although some believe that the Republicans will grab a massive number of seats, I think that when the dust settles, things will be little changed.

2) The trade in gold is crowded and seems eerily familiar to the bullishness surrounding crude oil in late 2007 when it was trading at $147 a barrel. Everyone has an opinion on gold, and most of the opinions are bullish. I believe that long term gold is a great trade, but I don't think 2010 is the year. In the precious metals space, silver, copper, platinum and other precious metals will outperform gold, but nothing will soar like most are expecting. The better place to be if you want commodity exposure is agricultural products like corn and wheat. Global food demand should lead to an upward bias in prices.

3) The unemployment rate will continue to hover around 10% in 2010. Although some economists are forecasting a significant improvement in the employment landscape, I don't see this occurring. Things won't get much worse, but I don't think things get much better.

4) Apple will release its tablet computer in early 2010 and it will truly revolutionize the landscape in technology. Microsoft will attempt to shift the media's focus to Windows 7 and Project Natal for the XBOX, but Apple will continue to take market share and media attention away from Microsoft. Before the end of the year multiple companies with release products with striking resemblance to the Apple tablet, resembling the smartphone trend following the release of the iPhone.

5) The potential legalization of Marijuana will become one of the most hotly debated issues of 2010. Fiscal budget deficits will require that state legislators consider all options to increase revenue. Multiple states will pass legislation that either legalizes small does or decriminalizes possession.

6) Amazon which is riding high with the success of the Kindle eReader will encounter a difficult 2010 as the consumer closes their wallets and the Kindle faces stiff competition from the Barnes and Noble Nook, the Sony eReader, and the Apple Tablet.

7) Twitter was the social media darling of 2009. I do not believe 2010 will be as kind to the the site of the tweet. Whether from increased competition or from the lack of a sustainable revenue model, I do not believe the site will have a successful year and will spend much less time in the news. The business of tweeting may be the future, I'm just not sure Twitter is the company that will make it profitable.

8) The recent rally in the stock market has many thinking that the worst has passed and the good times are here to stay. I believe that we are in for trouble in 2010 in the form of a consumer who stays in savings mode, a commercial real estate market teetering on the edge, and a government support system that cannot continue indefinitely. I believe the market will fall 5% for the year with many violent swings. The best place to invest will be large cap companies who generate a good portion of their sales abroad (McDonald's, Coke, ect.).

9) The United States will become soccer crazy during the summer. I'm envisioning Michael Phelps like hysteria towards our national soccer team during the World Cup in South Africa. It will start to become clear that soccer has a place among the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB in the eyes of American fans.

10) 2010 will be the year of 3D. More movies will be released in 3D and at-home-TV sets will begin to hit store shelves that are capable of handling 3D content. This will mark the start of a long term trend in media programming.

Please use the comments section to add your own predictions or to comment on mine. Thank you again for all your comments and support. Happy New Year!